Mai i te "pūngao tāpiri" ki te "whakapūmau pūngao matua," kei te huri haere ngā kaitahuri hiko waho-whatunga i tētahi panonitanga hangarau nui. Ko te hangarau hanga-whatunga, te whakawhiti korekore, ngā haurua-āputa whānui, te tārua manawanui, me te ōritetanga pūngao - e rima ngā ia matua e tautuhi ana i te whenua whakataetae o te mākete pūngao hou o te ao.
I te tau 2026, i tae te umanga rokiroki hiko ā-rohe me te umanga rokiroki hiko kāinga ki tētahi wā tino nui. I te taha o ngā āhuatanga huarere kino, te piki haere o te pōturi o te whatunga hiko, me te pikinga tonu o ngā utu hiko, kāore ngā hiko ā-rohe e noho hei "hiko tārua" mō ngā wāhi tūmatanui. Kei te huri haere tonu rātou hei hanganga hiko matua mō ngā kāinga hou, ngā pāmu, ngā wāhi arumoni me ngā wāhi ahumahi, me ngā rohe kāore i te whai hiko. I runga i ngā whanaketanga hou i te GRES 2026 me ngā panuitanga mai i ngā kamupene matua, ko ngā ia matua e rima e whai ake nei kei te tautuhi i te heke mai o ngā hiko ā-rohe.
1. Kua Whāia te Hangarau Hanga-Whārangi: Ka Noho te Inverter hei "Ngākau" o te Whatunga Iti
Ko te nuinga o ngā kaitahuri hiko tuku iho he "whai-whatunga" - ka whakawhirinaki rātou ki tētahi whatunga o waho hei whakarato i ngā tohutoro ngaohiko me te auau pumau. Ina kore e pumau, ina momotu rānei te whatunga, kāore e taea e rātou te pupuri i te hiko ko rātou anake. I te tau 2026, kua tino rerekē tēnei āhuatanga.
Kua whānuitia te whakamahi i te hangarau hanga whatunga. Kua whakarewahia e ngā kaitākaro nui pērā i a Huawei, Sungrow, me GoodWe ngā otinga whatunga iti atamai o te whakatupuranga e whai ake nei e whakauru hohonu ana i ngā rauropi whakaputa tukutahi mariko (VSG) ki ngā kaitahuri kore-whatunga. Mā tēnei ka taea e ngā kaitahuri te whakatū motuhake i te ngaohiko me te auau pumau i roto i ngā taiao kore-whatunga, whatunga ngoikore rānei, ā, ka mahi hei "ngakau" o te whatunga iti.
I roto i te hangarau, ka whai ngā kaitahuri hanga-pūnahi i ngā āhuatanga o te korekore me te whakaiti o ngā whakaputa hiko tukutahi, ka taea ai e rātou te urupare tere ki ngā huringa kawenga, ki ngā piki me ngā heke o te pūngao hou rānei, ā, ka mau tonu te pumau o te pūnaha. Ko te tikanga o tēnei putanga hou, ahakoa kua momotu katoa mai i te pūnahi matua, ka taea e ngā kaitahuri maha te mahi tahi hei hanga i tētahi pūnahi motuhake tino pono – e whakarato ana i te hiko matomato kore e mutu mō ngā moutere, ngā wāhi keri, ngā kāinga tūmatanui, me ngā whare hōia.
Mai i te tirohanga a te umanga, ka whakapai ake te hangarau hanga whatunga i te tūranga o ngā kaitahuri hiko kore-whatunga mai i ngā "kaitahuri hiko" ki ngā "kaitautoko pūnaha", ka nui ake te whakawhānui i tō rātou pūmanawa mākete i ngā rohe whatunga ngoikore.
2. Whakawhitinga Māmā Mai i te Whatunga ki te Whatunga: Kāore he Motuhanga Hiko e Kitea e ngā Kaiwhakamahi
I ngā wā o mua, i te korenga o te mana hiko, he maha ngā wā ka roa te huri ki te mana pākahiko, tekau mirihekona, tae atu ki ētahi hēkona – ka puta te kimo o te LED, te whakaara anō i te rorohiko, me ētahi atu wheako whakarihariha. I te tau 2026, kua noho te whakawhiti "kore-ahua" hei āhuatanga paerewa o ngā kaitahuri hiko waenga-ki-teitei.
Mā roto i ngā hanganga taputapu kua whakapaitia me ngā rauropi whakahaere tauira tino tere, kua whakaitihia te wā whakawhiti ki raro iho i te 5 mirihekona – he iti iho i te wā whakaroa o ngā taputapu noa (pērā i ngā rama LED me ngā pūhiko rorohiko). Kāore e kitea ana e ngā kaiwhakamahi noa tetahi motuhanga hiko; ka haere tonu ngā taputapu o te kāinga, ka pumau tonu te rama, ā, ka tiakina ngā hiko tairongo mai i ngā ngaru hiko.
I taua wā anō, kua noho ko te kaha nui o te mana me te kaha nui o te utaina kua noho hei paerewa. Hei tauira, ka taea e te kaitahuri hiko atamai 16kW te tautoko i te kawenga katoa o te pāmu, te whenua, te whare nui rānei, me te kaha nui e eke ana ki te 150–200% o te uara kua whakatauhia – he ngāwari ki te whakahaere i ngā kawenga ngaru mai i ngā hauhautanga, ngā papu wai, me ngā compressor. Heoi anō, ko ēnei kaitahuri hiko e tautoko ana i te hononga maha-pūngao: ka taea te whakauru i te PV, te rokiroki pākahiko, ngā kaihanga hiko tīhiera, me ngā tāpine hau iti, me te EMS pokapū e whakarite ana i ngā rere pūngao hei whakanui ake i te whai huatanga.
3. Te Tauine Tae o ngā Ārahi-Whānui-Awhe: Ka Peke te Kiato Mana ki te 25%, Neke Atu Rānei
Ko te silicon carbide (SiC) me te gallium nitride (GaN) ngā rauemi matua mō te haurua-whānui (WBG). I te tau 2026, kua piki ake te tere urunga o ēnei taputapu ki roto i ngā inverters waho-whatunga me ngā pūnaha rokiroki katoa-i-te-kotahi mai i raro i te 20% i te tau 2024 ki runga ake i te 60%, e tohu ana i te whakatinanatanga arumoni whānui.
Ki te whakatauritea ki ngā IGBT tuku iho e hangai ana ki te silicon, he nui ake ngā auau whakawhiti a ngā taputapu SiC me GaN, he iti ake te ātete-ā-ringa, ā, he iti ake ngā mate whakawhiti. I te taumata pūnaha inverter, e rua ngā painga tino kitea:
- Kua piki ake te mātotoru o te mana mā te 25%, neke atu rānei – he nui ake te mana whakaputa i te rōrahi kotahi, he iti ake rānei te rahi mō te whakatauranga mana kotahi, ā, ka māmā ake te tāutanga i runga i te pakitara, i roto rānei i te kāpata, ā, ka pai ake te urutau ki te wāhi mō ngā pūnaha rokiroki kāinga.
- He tino heke te whakapaunga hiko tūtatari – i raro i ngā kawenga māmā, tūtatari rānei, ka taea e ngā kaitahuri e whakamahi ana i ngā taputapu WBG te whakaiti i te ngaronga-ā-unoa mā te 40-60%. He mea tino nui tēnei mō ngā pūnaha kore-whatunga, ina roa ake te wā e ora ai te pākahiko i ia watt e penapenahia ana.
Mā ngā auau whakawhiti teitei ake ka taea e ngā aukume (ngā inductors, ngā transformers) te whakaiti i te rahi, ka whakaiti ake i ngā utu. E kitea ana i roto i ngā tau e rua e whai ake nei, ka noho ngā semiconductors whānui-rohe hei āhuatanga paerewa, ehara i te mea whiriwhiri, mō ngā inverters waho-whatunga.
4. Ka Huri te Mahi i Waho-Whatunga mai i te "Pūrua" ki te "Whakaū Manawanui": He Mea Me Whai i te Huarere Tino Kino
I ngā tau tata nei, kua piki haere te maha o ngā āhuatanga huarere kino (ngā awhiowhio, ngā hukarere, ngā ngaru wera) i Amerika Te Raki, i Ūropi, i te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti o Āhia, me tua atu, ā, kua piki ake te maha o ngā motuhanga hiko nui. Ko ngā hiko tārua tuku iho – pērā i ngā kaihanga penehīni iti – e pāngia ana e ngā raruraru rokiroki wahie, haruru, me ngā tukunga. He rerekē, ko ngā inverters ranu me te kaha kore-whatunga me te rokiroki pākahiko kei te piki haere te whakamahi a ngā whare me ngā pakihi iti hei otinga "whakapūmau i te manawanui".
Ko te tikanga o te whakamanawanui he nui atu i te whakarato noa i te tautoko rangitahi i ngā wā motumotu hiko. Ka whakarite hoki i te kounga o te hiko ina kore e pumau te whatunga hiko, ina rerekē pinepine rānei te ngaohiko, kia pai ai te whakahaere o ngā kawenga tairongo. Ahakoa ngā kaiwhakamahi i ngā tāone nui kua taupokina pai, kei te whiriwhiri inaianei i ngā kaitahuri ranu me te kaha whakawhiti kaha ki waho o te whatunga hiko hei tiaki i ngā tūponotanga o te mate hiko e kore e taea te matapae.
E ai ki ngā urupare mai i ngā kaihanga inverter maha, i piki ake ngā tuku o ngā inverter ranu me te mahi "tārua kore-whatunga" mā te neke atu i te 35% i ia tau i te Hauwhā Tuatahi o te tau 2026, ā, neke atu i te haurua o aua ota i ahu mai i ngā rohe he whatunga hiko pumau. He tohu tēnei kua whanake te kaha kore-whatunga mai i te "mea e hiahiatia ana mō ngā rohe tūmatanui" ki te "paerewa uara tāpiri mō ngā mākete matua".
5. Te Whakatairanga i te Pūngao Ao Whānui: Te Karo i ngā Whatunga Tuku Iho, me te Peke atu ki te Pūngao Kakariki Tohatoha
Ehara i te mea he hangarau arumoni noa iho ngā kaitahuri hiko kore-pūnaha; he taputapu nui hoki hei whakaoti i te rawakore o te ao. Tae noa ki tēnei rā, e 700 miriona tāngata e noho ana i ngā rohe kāore he hiko, he ngoikore rānei te urunga atu ki te pūnahi hiko – ko te nuinga i ngā moutere o Āhia ki te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti, i Āwherika ki te tonga-o-Sahara, i ētahi wāhanga o Āhia ki te Tonga, me Amerika Latina taiwhenua.
He puhoi te toronga o te whatunga hiko tuku iho, he nui te pūtea, ā, he nui ngā mate tuku hiko – he maha ngā wā kāore e taea te whai hua i roto i ēnei rohe. Ka taea e ngā otinga rokiroki hiko + PV + inverter kore-whatunga hiko whai hua, iti te utu te karo i te whatunga hiko nui, ka whakarato hiko pono mā roto i ngā whatunga iti tohatoha.
I te tau 2026, nā te whanaketanga o te hangarau hanga whatunga me te hekenga o ngā utu o ngā taputapu whānui-rohe, kua heke te utu pūngao taurite (LCOE) mō ngā pūnaha waho-whatunga ki
0.15‑0.25/kWh–he iti iho i te whakaputanga tīhiera (0.30‑0.60/kWh). Kei te kaha te whakatairanga a ngā umanga pūtea whanaketanga o te ao me ngā kāwanatanga ā-rohe i te tauira "kāinga rokiroki hiko PV i waho o te whatunga hiko", mā te whakamahi i ngā kaitahuri hiko i waho o te whatunga hiko hei matua whatunga hiko iti hei whakakaha i ngā kura, i ngā whare hauora, i ngā papu wai, me ngā mahi whakaputa iti.
Ehara i te mea pakihi anake te hiranga o tēnei ia auaha – ko tōna tikanga ka taea e ngā rohe kāore i te rawaka te ratonga te peke atu i te wāhanga hanga whatunga tuku iho, ka awhi i tētahi pūnaha hiko tohatoha ma, atamai, kia tutuki ai te whanaketanga pekepeke tūturu.
Whakamutunga
I te tau 2026, ka honoa ngā au nui e rima o te umanga inverter waho-whatunga – te hangarau hanga whatunga, te whakawhiti korekore, ngā semiconductors whānui-rohe, te whakapumautanga manawanui, me te ōritetanga pūngao – hei akiaki i te rāngai mai i te "tāpiritanga motuhake" ki te "matua matua". Mō ngā kaihanga inverter, kua neke atu te paepae hangarau i tua atu i te huihuinga me te whakamātautau ngawari, ka whanake hei whakataetae whānui i roto i ngā hikohiko mana, ngā rauropi matihiko, me te pūtaiao rauemi. Ko ngā kamupene e haumi wawe ana ki ngā rauropi hanga whatunga, ngā mekameka tuku SiC, me ngā āheinga whakaritenga e whakahaerehia ana e te AI ka toa i te painga matua i roto i te huringa mākete e haere ake nei.
Wā tuku: 29 Paenga-whāwhā 2026